22-3 head and shoulders

There is a Head & Shoulders pattern on 1 hour chart which could lead to target price of 1.3080, there is also larger scale head & shoulders on 4 hour timeframe which could lead to further down fall of EUR, to 1.2600

Look at chart from yesterday to see 4 hour head and shoulders pattern.

21-3 EURUSD still on up side

EURUSD is near 1.33 and could penetrate it and go up to 1.3320, there should be some heavy resistance and pullback could occur. Anyway divergence on MACD is still there and is warning us about possible pullback.

One other possibility is big head and shoulders on 4 hour chart, and we are near second shoulder, take a look at second picture.

I can't give some clear entry signals as there are none, just be careful and there is a possible sell on its way, but it is still too early to talk about selling.

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20-3 Up?

EURUSD has gone straight p without significant pull back, until we see otherwise I will presume it will go further up, there is some MACD divergence which shows we are near the top!

I presume it will go up to 1.3310 and than encounter significant resistance and could go for some pullback, so until price reaches 1.3310 there is no selling for me.
What about buying? I would buy close to 1.3200 in other words range from 1.3210-1.3230 could work with stop around 1.3190.

19-3 on the rise

EURUSD is going up, but today it will probably show some pull back to 1.310 area if it stops there we could have nice head and shoulders pattern (inverse) meaning that EUR could go as high as 1.33
It is also good to know that right shoulder is exactly 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of las move up, and if it will go up is shouldn't close below.

anyway, big risk would be to enter short and ride it to 1.310 area, and lower risk would be to wait until it hits 1.3100 or 10 pips lower and to enter long with 40 pips stop and target of 1.3290

15-03 retracement

EURUSD will probably show some retracement today up to 1.3120, when it gets there if there are signs of reversal to down trend again. I will use it.
Signs like double top, MACD divergence !!

I don't have much time, but there is some explanation on
http://www.forexpeacearmy.com/forex-forum/sive-morten-analysis/19275-eur-usd-daily-video-march-15-2012-a.html

14-3 no entry today

EURUSD is bearish, but still very uncertain, anyway there should be a lot of support and stalling reaching 1.2900-1.3000 area so there should be some new signals there.

Today only possible entry would be to enter short with stop above 1.3127 but this is a large stop and I don't like it.

13.3. more retracement

EURUSD retraced more than I anticipated, anyway it is still in sell zone, as long it is below 61.8 fibo level.
If bar closes below 31 fibo level or 23 this is a sell signal with stop above recent high !
Target would be around 1.2970-1.2780

12-3 Only way is to Sell

Looks like there will be no retracement even shallow one. If There is a retracement to 1.3150 I would like to establish fresh new sell position there, target is 1.2950, anyway there is nothing else in my mind but to search for new sell position. I always like retracements for entering.

9-3 NFP day careful

Sell signal if bar closes below support on H4 (4 hour timeframe), stop loss above recent high

8-3 same as yesterday

Some retracement is showing, I will go only for a sell position, no buying despite retracement!

Sell will go when price gets below red line !

7-3 divergence

Yesterdays plan was a no go, anyway I was mad that I didn't enter on the short side and eur was dropping like a stone in water. Anyway chart is showing some divergence today and it could turn around and go a bit higher creating retracement channel and giving a chance to sell at higher prices!!

I will watch for significant Fibonacci levels to for a chance to enter short !

And major resistance should be 1.3190 where I will be glad to enter short.
Second significant level is 1.3250 ! Another possible entry point!


Fibonacci levels

divergence on MACD

6-3 bit of stall

EURUSD is on its way to break support on daily timeframe which would mean further move to the down in larger scale!

What could we expect today, probably no sell signal, and a bit of retracement which gives a chance to enter at a better price.

Price should probably reach 38% of whole move to the down (fibonnaci resistance) that is around 1.3280. I will wait for that retracement (which could be choppy) and  after some confirmation (on 1 hour  or 15 min chart) that direction is turning around I will enter short. This scenario could happen today but  today could be also very slow and without sell signal, market could take some time off after that big move.

shown below daily, 4 hour and 1 hour

2-3 some reacement expected

Market has reached some support after nice thrust down, before continuing its journey down it will at least show some retracement if not new highs, after all on daily time frame it is still bullish.

Today I am looking for a buy above trendline on 15 minute chart as showed below - around 1.3325. It should reach at least 1.3390 in my opinion, from there we shall see.

UPDATE: no retracement today, euro is dropping like a stone ! No entry

01-03 unconfirmed down trend

Market could push a bit lower and then go into a pullback, or it could retrace from current position. Since it was a strong down move it is very risky to buy, and chasing that move and opening a sell without a pullback is a stupid move!

So waiting once again for good setup, very frustrating, boredom makes people wan't to trade and make fullish mistakes.

29-2 Still no sign for sell

EURUSD is creeping higher, pip by pip, no real sign to enter on short side, and no good place to enter on the long side today, key resistance at 1.3550-1.3580 or even mighty 1.3600 is near, there is too much risk to enter on buy side.

Smartest thing today is to wait.

On 1 hour and 4 hour time frame we have possible double top pattern which could lead into some selling, but this could be very risky trade so do not take it, dips down could be used to enter long !!!!

28-2 searching for a Buy in EURUSD

Market has shown a nice pull back to 38% of whole recent upswing. It now stands between resistance and support lines that could lead into triangle and breakout, anyway I am looking for a buy, if price closes on 15 min chart above 1.3440 I will buy it. Stop loss 40 pips (freaking choppy market reacently) and target 1.3530 (just 20 pips below some serious resistance on daily timeframe - see 2 posts before).

It is lets say a more riskier trade than before because we are close to some serious resistance and there will be more and more sellers, but in my opinion sell here is even more riskier, because there is no confirmation of market turning around, until I see that market is turning down i will not search for a sell.

There could be even higher entry than this but beware of resistance on 1.3550, if risk is greater than profit then it is not worth it, target should be at least 1.5 greater than potential loss!

Today is a buy day :)

27-2 choppy sell flavour of the day

Market stands very near of serious resistance which is around 1.3560, and should reach it in next few days. Today it is most likely to go down, macd is turning around and sell should be flavour of the day. I am going to sit on my hands today as it is too unsafe to enter in a sell trade, and buy trade is very probable to fail.

24-2 Choppy World

EUR$ rising it will probably continue to rise up to 1.3560 !

Today I will enter only if market shows some pullback from current position of 1.3370, since EUR is showing very choppy price action this pull back could be up to 1.3320 or 61% of recent up move.

This is interesting pic from yesterday showing retracement up to 61% and then pushing up.

23.02. Argh

Nothing new, EUR stuck! Trading is at the moment very risky, market is choppy and could trigger stop loss quickly.

Anyway uptrend is still valid, so more chance for buy trade to succeed! but no good entry patterns!


Daily trend still looks OK!

22.2. Still Ranging

EURUSD still in range, moving sideways, boring.

Currently it is crawling lower, pip by pip. I would consider buying it on lower level border which is around 1.3187, but I would buy it if it shows some sign of reversal, with 35 pips stop below recent low or around 1.3152 (just below gap) or even 1.3140 (much safer).  If it goes below this gap it could proceed lower!

Target is 1.3390 or even 1.3490 (if I feel crazy), and move stop loss to break even after 35 pips of profit.

this is the gap

another option is to enter long on breaking of upper border 1.33 but risk increases there and I would increase target from there to 1.3490, this is trade that is not really preferable but I would take it.

DAILY GRAPH very intriguing

Can EUR get to 1.36, looks like it could and currently is on its way

Picture is self explanatory !

EUR$ currently agaiiinnnn in consolidation, anyway daily trend is up, so I want to buy not sell, tricky part is there is no good entry point at this moment, so if there is some retracement I will watch it like a hawk and try to catch it.

If this consolidation lasts good entry could be bottom of consolidation block, and again there is stress on could be, I don't like consolidation because there is much indecision.

It all revolves around Greece, in my opinion EUR shouldn't rise it should fall, but optimism about bailout is very thing that drives it up, but what after bailout, problems are still there nothing is solved.

more on this on
www.zerohedge.com

http://www.forexpeacearmy.com/forex-forum/current-forex-trading-signals/18957-current-euro-greece-situation-2012-a.html

20.02. Monday - Jack In A Box

This is one choppy chop market, and I don't want to get chopped so today extra careful!

EURUSD is currently trading in a box, it can't break it, It has tried to move up and failed, move down and failed. EUR$ is now at top border, There is a potential sell there, but I will wait for some clearer signal, since market isn't offering one right now.

If market goes below 1.3200 that is a nice sell with 30 pips stop loss and target 1.3110

But I have my doubts that this might go higher so I will probably pass this one!

17.02. Friday

EURUSD boomed up on another news from Greece situation, and now sits on 50% retracement from whole down move, it still doesn't negate bearish view on EURUSD, I prefer to be short, but this is tricy situation for a good entry.
Currently EUR$ is locked in tight range,  would sell it if it goes below 1.3120 and closes bar on hourly timeframe below that, with tight stop loss of 30-40 pips, target 1.2910.
Even safer version would be bar close on 4 hour timeframe below 1.3080 with same target and stop loss.
Additional setup would be if EUR$ goes to 61% fibo retracement to look for sell signal there, I will look for sell signal there on 1 hour timeframe connecting lower highs of price action with line (simple support line) if price closes below that line, I will enter short.

16.02.

EURUSD is at serious support level, it is a bit overextended for me to enter, I will wait for a pullback!
It is testing lower border of a congestion box, most likely that it will pullback to 1.3070 up to 1.3120 If it does I will look for an entry short, it might not happen today.
If it proceeds lower I will not chase that move and will wait for a pullback to support level (red line).

funny comments from zerohedge

Yes: Europe suggests it may be best for Greece to be partially pregnant... er, in default. But all will be "controlled" - promise. We were a little generous in our estimate for the halflife of the Chinese bail out rumor. Either way, EURUSD plunging down to under 1.3070 on the news.
full text at: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/eurusd-collapses-report-eurozone-considering-delay-greek-bailout

15.2. update

I closed out postion early today some 30 pips before target, still nice profit from this trade. If you are short you could wait for target to be hit or maybeee even beyond that (be sure to put stop loss on breakeven - opening price or 10 pips below), since this could be a start of greater down trend, but I am calling it a day and booking profits.

Here is the entry I took, it was on 1.3161 and close on 1.3074

15.02. EURUSD analysis

Yesterdays second entry, both entries worked out pretty well and hit targets

Today situation is that EURUSD is pulling back from recent lows and if it goes above 1.3220 it could change direction to the upside, my plan is to wait for pullback to 1.3220 and see if it will once more go to the downside then I will open short position. If there is no signal I wan't be entering long.

Target for short trade would be around 1.3040, stop loss on entry want be more than 40 pips. entry could easily be around 1.3170.

Entry was a bit higher than expected but still worked nicely.

 This is situation today, will wait for retracement to 1.3210 and than go to 15 min chart to get clear signal for reversal to down trend for another entry short with stop loss above recent high on 15 min chart and target 1.3080. Will move stop loss to break even after 30-40 pips of profit.

Trend Has shifted to unconfirmed DOWN trend, I don't want to enter long, I prefer to wait until price hits around 1.3245 to enter short. How to enter short - I will wait for trend reversal on 15 min chart and place my stop above recent high (max 40 pips), target 1.3070